Showing posts with label mortgages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mortgages. Show all posts

Friday, December 20, 2013

Mortgage Market News for December 20, 2013

  • TSX +57.47 to 13,392.20 (CP) a day after markets responded enthusiastically to the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to modestly cut back on a key stimulus program. The Fed also emphasized that short-term rates aren't going up any time soon.
  • Dow +11.11 to 16,179.08 The Fed has been using quantitative easing since the financial crises of 2008
  • Dollar +.21 to 93.76 US
  • Oil +.97 to $98.77 US
  • Gold -$41.40 to $1,193.60 US closed at a three-year low with a drop of almost two per cent in the much-battered gold sector as bullion prices resumed sliding after the Fed move. QE had supported gold prices because of inflationary fears. But inflation is tame in many countries and data out earlier this week showed the U.S. consumer price index rising at an annual rate of only 1.2 per cent, significantly below the Fed’s inflation target of two per cent.

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets +.04 to 1.86. The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.59) is well below the profit range at 1.73. If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently a bit lower in the region of 1.80 and 2.00.

Canada household debt-to-income ratio hits record high

Reuters – Fri, 13 Dec, 2013

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The ratio of Canadian household debt to income edged up to a record high in the third quarter but the pace of growth almost halved, which might calm policymakers fretting about high personal debt levels.

The ratio hit 163.7 percent in the third quarter from 163.1 percent in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday. The ratio increased by 0.34 percent from the second quarter after advancing by 0.65 percent in the second quarter over the first.

The Bank of Canada - which has regularly warned Canadians not to take on too much debt at a time when interest rates are near record lows - has said it sees signs consumers are starting to retrench.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday he expected imbalances, including rising household indebtedness, to stabilize and then gradually unwind in coming years.

Analysts noted that the second and third quarters of the year are typically peak times for buying property.

"While the household debt ratio deteriorated again in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada's 'constructive evolution' of household balance sheets appears to be unfolding," said Benjamin Reitzes of BMO Capital Markets Economics.

"Policymakers will continue to watch this metric, but rising interest rates and better income growth should stabilize, then nudge this ratio lower over the next few years," he said in a note to clients.

Mortgage borrowing led the demand for credit in the third quarter, rising by C$19.7 billion ($18.4 billion) to a total of just over C$1.1 trillion.

The central bank on Tuesday said housing sector imbalances - a term used to describe debt, high house prices and over investment in property - were the single biggest internal threat to the Canadian economy.

The household debt-to-income ratio has now risen for two consecutive quarters after back-to-back declines. Poloz said on Thursday consumers had brought forward their plans to buy houses as mortgage rates started to rise.

Poloz also made clear he is particularly concerned about the risks posed by low inflation. The annual rate in October was just 0.7 percent, well below the central bank's 2 percent target.

Mazen Issa, a Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, noted that mortgage credit growth on a year-ago basis had decelerated.

"When taken in conjunction with Governor Poloz's speech yesterday ... (this) lends credence to the narrative that the low inflation backdrop has become the more dominant concern at the Bank of Canada," he said in a note to clients.

Statscan also said that national net worth rose 2.1 percent to C$7.50 trillion in the third quarter.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Mortgage Market News for December 19, 2013

  • TSX +154.57 to 13,334.73 (CP) as the U.S. Federal Reserve ended months of speculation and announced it will start cutting back on its monthly asset purchases. The Fed also went to some pains to assure financial markets that short-term rates aren't going up any time soon. It plans to hold its key short-term rate near zero “well past” the time when U.S. unemployment falls below 6.5 per cent.
  • Dow +292.71 to 16,167.97 The central bank said at the end of its two-day interest rate meeting that it would cut its US$85 billion of bond purchases by $10 billion — half Treasuries, half mortgage-backed securities — starting in January. It will make further decisions on tapering based on how economic data looks, particularly in regards to employment and inflation.
  • Dollar -.07 to 93.55 US as the greenback gained in value and the loonie fell
  • Oil +.58 to $97.80 US amid data showing oil inventories rose 2.94 million barrels last week, less than the four million barrels that analysts had expected
  • Gold +$4.90 to $1,235.00 US

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets +.02 to 1.82. The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.59) is close to the profit range at 1.77. If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently a bit lower in the region of 1.80 and 2.00.



CHMC draws a line under condo bubble fears

Andrea Hopkins and Leah Schnurr, Reuters | Financial Post 18/12/13

Canadian condominium construction has surged but population growth has kept oversupply in check, the federal housing agency said in a report on Wednesday that also showed declining mortgage arrears and high home-equity levels.

In its annual report on the housing market, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp pointed to steady mortgage debt and an increasing number of households as evidence that residential real estate is in good shape, despite warnings from observers that the market is overheated.

Canada’s housing market avoided the crash experienced in the United States five years ago, due in part to more conservative lending standards and a stronger economy. While economists have long predicted an eventual correction in Canada, they are divided over whether prices will drop sharply or simply stagnate in a so-called soft landing scenario.

The agency’s report showed some 41% of homeowners have no mortgage, while the rest typically have solid equity levels, accelerated mortgage payments or declining arrears.

As of June 2013, 0.31% of residential mortgages were three or more months in arrears, compared with 0.33% 12 months earlier, CMHC said. Arrears averaged 0.41% in the decades 1990-2010.

About 31% of recent buyers made lump-sum payments or increased their regular payment in 2012 to pay off their mortgage sooner, and 44% had their payment set above the minimum, the report showed.

The average amount of equity for homeowners with mortgages was 47%, and 71% have at least 25% equity in their home. Only 7% had less than 10% equity as of April 2013, suggesting only about 7% of homeowners would be “under water” if prices dropped more than 10%.

CONDOS DOMINATE HOMEBUILDING

With the once-booming but cooling condominium market widely perceived to be the weak spot in Canada’s urban housing market, the CMHC said condo construction was far outpacing construction of detached homes. Even so, there were no signs of oversupply yet because of the growing population, mostly because of a strong influx of immigrants and an increase in the number of people living alone.

While single-detached dwelling starts rose just 1.5% to 83,657 in 2012, multiple-dwelling starts — typically condos — rose 17.6% to 131,170 units. Condos comprised 61% of all construction in 2012, continuing a trend that began in 2002.

The surge was most notable in Canada’s biggest cities, where cranes dot the skylines and tens of thousands of new units come on line every year. The share of condominium starts out of total starts was highest in Vancouver at 64%, followed by Toronto at 59% and MontrĂ©al at 58%.

While the number of starts suggests huge supply in the pipeline that will come to the market in the next year or two, the building boom has begun to slow and CMHC said inventories so far are not above historical levels.

Housing starts began moderating in the last half of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, with multiple-dwelling starts declining for three straight quarters before rising modestly in the second quarter of 2013.

In 2012, urban inventories averaged 4.7 units per 10,000 people, only slightly above the long-term average of 4.6 from 1992 to 2012. By the second quarter of 2013, however, inventories were at 5.1 units per 10,000 people.

CHMC said population growth and a shift in the way people are living suggests the demand for smaller housing, including condos, will grow.

“As a consequence of population aging and the increased tendency to live alone, one-person households are expected to show the fastest pace of growth to 2036, making it the single biggest type of household by the 2020s,” CHMC said.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Mortgage Market for December 6, 2013

  • TSX -104.52 to 13,200.40 (CP) pressured by the financial sector as the latest batch of bank earnings disappointed, giving traders an excuse to take some more profits from a sector that has delivered solid returns all year. "None of the numbers were bad per se, they just didn't knock the lights out and it's something that people got accustomed to with the Canadian banks," said Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer of Sun Life Global Investment.
  • Dow -68.26 to 15,821.51 as concerns about what the Federal Reserve will do with a key stimulus measure grew in the wake of more positive economic data
  • Dollar +.33 to 93.98 US
  • Oil +.18 to $97.38 US
  • Gold -$15.30 to $1,231.90 US as the precious metal appeared less attractive on rising speculation the Fed will move sooner than thought to taper asset purchases.

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets +.03 to 1.80. The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.59) is within the profit range at 1.79. Investors are again tolerating a bit lower profitability. If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently a bit lower in the region of 1.80 and 2.00.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-05y?countryCode=bx



8 potential pitfall of credit cards

Susan Johnston | U.S.News & World Report LP

Credit cards are convenient - and many offer rewards on purchases. But if you don't use credit responsibly, you can quickly rack up debt and decimate your credit score in the process. Here's a look at eight potential pitfalls to avoid.

1. Falling for marketing hype. When choosing a credit card, it's easy to get excited about a sign-up bonus or a card that contains the logo for your favorite sports team without thinking about how the credit card actually fits your spending habits. Is it accepted at the retailers you frequent? Does it have an annual fee? What's the APR? These details aren't as exciting as snazzy bonuses or logos, but they're crucial to consider.

If you've had credit issues in the past, a pre-approval offer might be tempting. But Curtis Arnold, founder of cardratings.com and author of "How You Can Profit from Credit Cards," says those pre-approvals are often a marketing gimmick. You might meet some kind of criteria set by the card issuer, but pre-approval offers are not a guarantee you'll actually qualify for the card or that it's the right card for you. Think about how you plan to use the credit card (Travel? Everyday expenses? Emergencies only?) and research your options to find the card that best fits your needs.

2. Skipping the fine print. Ignoring the fine print before or after you apply for a credit card can get you into trouble. "Too often, people skip the fine print and don't understand the fees that are involved," says Beverly Harzog, credit card expert and author of the forthcoming book "Confessions of a Credit Junkie: Everything You Need to Know to Avoid the Mistakes I Made."

Don't assume that the 2009 Credit CARD Act - which outlawed certain credit card fees and required issuers to give consumers greater transparency around other fees - will protect you from any and all credit card fees. "People could get a false sense of security knowing there's a new credit card law," Arnold says. "The laws don't protect us from everything. Our best protection is ourselves."

3. Making only the minimum payment. Just because you can afford the minimum payment doesn't mean you can afford all your credit card purchases. "Credit card companies are some of the best marketing people around ... when you get your bill, the first number on your bill is the minimum payment," says Bill Hardekopf, CEO of lowcards.com, a free consumer resource on credit cards.

Say your minimum payment is $42, but your total balance is $1,200. "A lot of people think, 'I paid the $42 so I'm good on my credit card,'" Hardekopf says. "No, you're not. Your balance is still well over $1,000 and getting charged this extremely high APR." If your interest rate was 18 percent and you made only the minimum payment of $42 on a $1,200 balance, you would wind up paying $713.79 in interest and spend 89 months digging yourself out of debt. Carrying a balance on a rewards credit card typically means even higher interest rates than regular credit cards.

4. Taking a cash advance. Cash advances and other cash-like transactions can start running up interest from the date of the transaction. Often, these may be subject to different interest rates than regular purchases. "There's a temptation to use a credit card in an ATM machine or use those horribly obnoxious convenience checks," Hardekopf says. Both can have extra fees attached, so avoid them if you can.

5. Ignoring statements and other mail. According to data from BillGuard, "grey charges" - charges that are technically legal but aren't always authorized - cost credit and debit cardholders more than $14 billion last year. These charges can include payments for a gym membership you thought you canceled or ringtones you didn't know your cellphone carrier had tacked onto your bill. Review your credit card statements regularly to avoid these extra charges, and try to resolve the issue with the retailer or, if that doesn't work, dispute the charges. "You need to go over your credit card statements with a fine-toothed comb to make sure that nothing's fraudulent and there's nothing you're unaware of," Hardekopf says.

Review other materials from your credit card issuer and continue checking the fine print even after you start using your new plastic, as interest rates and terms can change. It's probably not the most tantalizing mail you get, but Harzog recommends reading all email and snail mail from your credit company so you'll know about any changes.

6. Maxing out your cards. Using all your available credit not only costs you money, it can also lower your credit score because credit card issuers consider you a higher risk if your credit utilization ratio - the amount you've charged versus your total available credit - is above 30 percent. "You start to look like you're desperate, like you need the credit card to survive," Harzog explains. "Credit card issuers don't like risk." As a result, they may raise your interest rate, or they may try to reduce your available credit to rein in your spending.

7. Missing your due date. A credit card's grace period is the time between the end of a billing cycle and your payment due date. Miss the due date, and you may get charged interest or damage your credit score. "The due date really is the due date," Harzog says. "Set up something to remind yourself that payment is due on that day." This could be a calendar reminder or if you have multiple credit cards, you could ask the issuers to shift your billing cycle so the due dates are synchronized.

Arnold recommends automating credit card payments so you won't get foiled by a lost check or forgotten payment. "If you pay by mail, you can forget or go on vacation," he says. "Set your whole thing up on autopilot as much as possible."

8. Chasing points or miles. Credit card rewards can be addictive and cause some people to buy things they don't need simply to get the rewards. "The key to the rewards card is to use it to purchase things that you already need to buy," Harzog says. "If you need a new outfit, that's fine, but don't use a rewards card to buy a new outfit because you want the points." Plus, in order to receive a $500 plane ticket, you would need to charge several times that amount to earn the equivalent in miles or points.

Studies show that consumers spend more when paying with credit versus cash, and rewards card users spend even more than those with a regular card. "Rewards cards are designed to get you to spend more, and so they can be very enticing," Arnold says. "You've got to be very disciplined."

Friday, October 4, 2013

Mortgage Market Commentary for October 4, 2013

  • TSX -103.88 to 12,735.12 (CP) has lost ground in three of the last four sessions reflecting increased volatility arising from worries that the United States could be heading for a big economic shock later this month.
  • DOW -136.66 to 14,996.48 falling below the 15,000 pt line as the U.S. Treasury Department warned Thursday that the economy could plunge into a downturn worse than the Great Recession five years ago if Congress fails to raise the federal borrowing limit and the country defaults on its debt obligations. The Treasury’s report says a default could cause the U.S. credit markets to freeze, the value of the dollar to plummet and U.S. interest rates to skyrocket
  • Dollar -.05c to 96.84c US amid widespread U.S. dollar weakness.
  • Oil -$.79 to $103.31 US
  • Gold -$3.10 to $1,317.60US

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets -.00 to 1.86. The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.79) is centred within the profit range at 1.93. If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently a bit lower than in the past, more in the region of 1.80 and 2.00.


At our Ontario Professional Development Day this week John Bordignon, EVP at Paradigm Quest spoke to us about the upcoming B21 changes coming in early 2014. No one knows for sure what the changes will be yet, but they will affect all 3 insurers, which means the Credit Unions will be affected by the changes this time too.

Some things he thought most likely are coming:
  • complete elimination of stated income programs,
  • increased documentation required to show proof of numerous areas
  • and higher interest rates.

Bank of Canada may not hike interest rates until 2016: Scotiabank
Michael Babad The Globe and Mail Thursday, Oct. 03 2013

How long for the Bank of Canada?

Bank of Nova Scotia economists are now raising the possibility of no move in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate until 2016.

Other observers have speculated on late next year or early in 2015 for the first rate hike by the central bank.
But Scotiabank’s Derek Holt, Mary Webb and Dov Zigler say the Bank of Canada is now signalling a hold of more than two years, citing signs in a recent speech by senior deputy governor Tiff Macklem, among other things.

Earlier this week, Mr. Macklem painted a less optimistic picture than that painted a couple of weeks earlier by Governor Stephen Poloz.

The Bank of Canada’s benchmark overnight rate now stands at just 1 per cent.

“The BoC probably now envisages spare capacity remaining into 2016,” the Scotiabank economists said, adding the central bank now projects hitting its 2-per-cent target for annual inflation in mid-2015.

They believe the Bank of Canada may change that forecast, to an even later date, when meets later this month and also issues its monetary policy report.

“Against the conventional thinking that the BoC would want to hike before spare capacity closes, we continue to think that very easy money will be required even as spare capacity shuts,” the economists said.
“That’s because we don’t see the economy slipping into material excess aggregate demand into 2016,” they added in a research note.

“Highly stimulative monetary policy may therefore be required even at a resting equilibrium of no spare capacity. An added constraint in this regard is that while the BoC has exercised modest policy independence from the Federal Reserve in the past and with a mixed track record, we continue to view the central bank as being toward the limits of independence from Fed policy.”

The Fed has vowed to hold its benchmark rate at effectively zero until unemployment eases to at least 6.5 per cent.


The Scotiabank economists have been further out than others in the belief that the Bank of Canada won’t move until the third quarter of 2015, with the possibility of holding steady until “well into 2016

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Mortgage Market Commentary October 3, 2013

  • TSX -8.44 to 12,839.00 (CP) amid rising concerns that a partial U.S. government shutdown in its second day will last longer than thought and impact negotiations over raising the U.S. government's debt ceiling in mid-October.
  • DOW -58.56 to 15,133.14 Disappointing job creation data also pressured U.S. indexes. Payroll firm ADP reported that the U.S. private sector created 166,000 jobs last month, lower than the 178,000 that had been expected. It also revised lower its job creation figures for the previous two months. That's likely all the jobs data that traders will get this week as one of the spinoff effects of the shutdown is an absence of government data that usually moves markets.
  • Dollar -.06c to 96.79c US as prices for copper,gold and oil advanced.
  • Oil +$2.06 to $104.10 US
  • Gold +$34.60 to $1,320.70US bullion's attraction as safe haven investment pushed prices higher.

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets -.01 to 1.86. The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.79) is centred within the profit range at 1.93. If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently a bit lower than in the past, more in the region of 1.80 and 2.00.



Canada’s love for home renovation wanes: report
Brenda Bouw | Pay Day – Tue, 1 Oct, 2013

Canada's obsession with home improvement is starting to fade due in part to rising interest rates and debt levels, but also because we’re running out of rooms to refurbish, a new report suggests.

After about a decade of redoing kitchens and bathroom, TD Bank predicts renovation activity will slow for the rest of this year and next.

Home renovation spending has grown 7 per cent a year for the past decade, but will fall to half its historical rate for the rest of the year and throughout 2014, the bank says.

“In 2015, the combined effect of higher interest rates, elevated household debt levels and a cooling in housing markets is likely to lead to a modest dip in renovation outlays,” TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said in a note.

Still, she says the $45 billion in total renovation activity expected by 2015 is still more than double its level of a decade ago.

Canadians’ rush to renovate happened alongside a home buying surge over the past decade, driven by rock-bottom interest rates. That also spawned a number of reality shows such as Property Brothers, Holmes on Homes and the Do It Yourself Network, which further fuelled the home renovation frenzy.

The economic importance of the sector has also skyrocketed over the past 20 years, notes Petramala.
Citing Statistics Canada data, she says home renovations account for nearly 40 per cent of total residential investment today, up from 25 per cent in the 1990s.

But that is expected to moderate in the coming years, with the exception of work done to benefit Baby Boomers as they age.

“While home improvements to add quality and value to ones home were likely more popular forms of spending over the last decade, renovations to help make homes more accessible for seniors are expected to be a bigger source of renovation activity over the longer term,” Petramala writes.

For the rest of the population, renovations are expected to slow now that we’ve updated much of what we own.
“There will probably continue to be a significant share of remodeling projects. However, the recent string of new homebuilding and renovation spending has left the Canadian housing stock in the best condition in decades,” Petramala says.

About a quarter of current housing stock in the country still needs minor repairs and maintenance. Petramala says the average age of homes in Canada is also falling, which isn't surprising given the amount of new construction that has hit the market in recent years.

Her report comes as home renovation companies like Rona Inc, Canada's largest home improvement retailer, struggle with falling sales.

Economists are also forecasting Canada's housing market will slow, despite a surprisingly strong summer, particularly in large cities such as Toronto and Vancouver.

We're also saving more, even though our debt-to-household income ratio was at a record late last year. Last month, TD economist Leslie Preston noted Canadians' personal savings rate is near a 16-year high.

"Despite the focus on the high absolute level of household indebtedness, it is apparent that households in Canada have shifted towards greater thrift," Preston wrote. "This trend suggests that households have been taking action to improve their longer-term financial prospects."

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Mortgage Market Commentary - July 22, 2013

As at close of markets Friday
  • S&P/TSX +56.28 to 12,685.13 climbed to its highest level in more than 1-1/2 months on Friday, ending the week higher after a rise in commodity prices buoyed shares of natural resource companies and boosted market sentiment.
  • Dow -4.80 to 15,543.74 experiencing its best month since January and looks poised to extend the rally with a deluge of earnings next week, though significant gains may be harder to come by with major indexes at record highs.
  • Dollar +0.0029 to 96.67 US
  • Oil +0.24 to 108.11
  • Gold +25.50 to 1,318.40
Canadian 5 year bond yields markets -.03 to 1.65
The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.59) is finally back again within the profit range at 1.94. If this remains steady we may see some good rate specials again! If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently in the region of 1.90 and 2.10


How traffic congestion kills the economy

By Brenda Bouw | Insight – Fri, 12 Jul, 2013
Did you drive to work this morning? A new study says you not only contributed to traffic congestion, but also prevented someone else from using the road
.
Transit users don’t get too smug. Your decision to take the train or bus during rush hour has the same impact, inspiring people to take their car instead of packing themselves in with other transit commuters.
In fact, the study shows both transit and traffic congestion is keeping many workers at home. They're either telecommuting or giving up their jobs altogether just to avoid the every day gridlock that can be both financially and emotionally draining

The C.D. Howe Institute study says the combined social and economic costs of congestion are costing cities billions of dollars in lost revenues. It's calling on governments to make better infrastructure decisions to try to stop the economic bleeding.

"When congestion makes people choose to stay at home rather than travel, all sorts of activities are curtailed, resulting in a quantifiable loss to the economy," says Benjamin Dachis, author of the report called, Cars, Congestion and Costs: A New Approach to Evaluating Government Infrastructure Investment. "These losses should be included in the costs of congestion and, in turn, estimates of the benefits of new infrastructure investment."

It’s the latest in a series of reports calling on governments to fix transit gridlock issues in major Canadians cities.

The C.D. Howe report estimates the costs of congestion in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to $7.5 to $11 billion a year, which is an additional $1.5 to $5 billion than current forecasts.
That’s money lost when people choose to stay away from urban centres as a result of increasing congestion.
Dachis points out the benefits of “urban agglomeration,” including people accessing jobs that better match their skills, in-person knowledge sharing and more demand entertainment and cultural opportunities, which benefit other people.

"When congestion makes urban interactions too costly to pursue, these benefits are foregone, adding significantly to the net costs of congestion," said Dachis.

“The social returns from infrastructure can be substantial.”

The report says government aren’t calculating these benefits in their infrastructure spending decisions, which he argues is a mistake.

Dachis recommends governments in Canada should make infrastructure investment by calculating the positive and negative external factors in their cost-benefit analysis used in the initial decision to build.
They should considering charging the “social costs” for users, which Dachis says includes fares and tolls to the extent that they generate economic activity at the destination.

"Charge users of infrastructure the full social costs, to the extent possible," he wrote in the report. "In the case of transportation infrastructure, governments should charge users for the full cost of congestion, but invest in more infrastructure than would be self-sufficient from fare or toll revenue alone, with a view to increasing quantifiable benefits from urban agglomeration."



Thursday, March 7, 2013

Mortgage Commentary March 7, 2013

As at close of markets Wednesday

TSX +95.93 to 12,831.96(CP)

DOW +42.47 to 14,296.24 Positive employment data helped push the Dow Jones industrial average to a fresh, record high for a second day — its highest level since early October 2007. Payroll firm ADP said the private sector created 198,000 jobs last month. Also the central bank's so-called Beige Book said the U.S. economy expanded in all parts of the country in January and February, helped by strong auto sales, a continued recovery in housing and improved job prospects.

Dollar -.33c to 96.96c US after the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at one per cent and indicated that persistent economic weakness and low inflation means a hike is a long ways off.

Oil -$.39 to $90.43US after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude supplies climbed by 3.8 million barrels last week, much higher than the 1.1 million-barrel climb that analysts expected.

Gold +$0 to $1,574.90

Canadian 5 year bond yields markets -.01 to 1.30The spread (obtained by subtracting the bond yield above from the industry average 5 yr rate published mortgage rate of 3.24) is now centred in the desired profit range at 1.94 . If the increase in bond yield continues upward, the spread shrinks, which could prompt interest rates to rise. The range for investor desired profitability is currently in the region of 1.90 and 2.10


Bank of Canada softens stance, but rate hike still on horizonGordon Isfeld | Financial Post 13/03/06
OTTAWA — After months of staring down increasingly threatening economic data here and abroad, the Bank of Canada appears to have blinked — ever so slightly.

The central bank on Wednesday did what it has done for two-and-a-half-years, leaving its near-rock-bottom interest rate unturned.

But the wording behind the decision — keeping its trendsetting lending level at 1% — has been softened somewhat.

The bank, which has left its key rate at the same level since September 2010, also highlighted concerns over continued slack in the economy and pointed to a longer extension of that holding pattern.

I don't think anybody is going to be taken by surprise by what they are saying. I think most believe that the bank is going nowhere for a long period of time," said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Market.

"But to have the bank actually spell it out so explicitly was a little bit of a surprise," he said. "They've been a little bit stronger in their language than most had expected. But it's hardly a shock."

In their statement, policymakers said that given the "continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary stimulus currently place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required."


Monday, April 23, 2012

Updated Home Mortgage Rates for April 23, 2012

Our Best Home Mortgage Rates

Terms Posted Rates Our Rates
6 MONTHS 4.45% 4.40%
1 YEAR 3.20% 2.75%
2 YEARS 3.55% 2.99%
3 YEARS 3.95% 3.19%
4 YEARS 4.64% 3.29%
5 YEARS 5.14% 3.29%
7 YEARS 6.35% 3.99%
10 YEARS 6.75% 3.99%
Rates are subject to change without notice. OAC E&OE

Monday, March 5, 2012

New Federal Government Mortgage Prepayment Code of Conduct

Code of Conduct for Federally Regulated Financial Institutions

Mortgage Prepayment Information

Purpose

The purpose of the Code is to ensure that federally regulated financial institutions ("lenders") provide enhanced information in respect of credit agreements secured by mortgages where a prepayment charge could apply ("mortgages") to assist borrowers in making decisions about prepayment of their mortgage.
Lenders currently provide substantial amounts of information relevant to mortgage prepayments to consumers in accordance with the requirements in the applicable federal regulations, including but not limited to federal cost of borrowing disclosure regulations and credit business practices regulations. The information that will be provided under this Code is in addition to existing information provided by lenders to borrowers.

Application and Implementation

Lenders will implement the policy elements of the Code with respect to new mortgages no later than six (6) months from date of adoption of the Code for Element 3 and Element 4; and no later than twelve (12) months from adoption of the Code for Element 1, Element 2 and Element 5. Lenders will apply the Code to existing mortgages where it is feasible to do so. The Code does not apply to mortgages that are entered into for business purposes or to mortgages entered into by borrowers who are not natural persons.

Compliance with the Code

The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada will monitor and report on compliance with the Code.

Manner of Presenting Information

Lenders will provide the information in language, and present it in a manner, that is clear, simple and not misleading.

Policy Elements

1. Information Provided Annually
Lenders will provide the following mortgage prepayment information to borrowers annually:
  • Prepayment privileges that the borrower can use to pay off their mortgage faster without having to pay a prepayment charge. Examples include making lump-sum prepayments, increasing the regular payment amount, and increasing the frequency of the payment to weekly or bi-weekly.
  • The dollar amount of the prepayment that the borrower can make on a yearly basis under the terms of their mortgage without having to pay a prepayment charge.
  • Explanation of how the lender calculates the prepayment charge for the borrower's mortgage (for example, a certain number of months' interest or the Interest Rate Differential (IRD).
  • Description of the factors that could cause prepayment charges to change over time.
  • Customized information about the mortgage, valid as of the date the information is produced, for the purposes of the borrower estimating the prepayment charge. The customized information will include, depending on the type of mortgage product held by the borrower:
    • The amount of the loan that the borrower has not yet repaid
    • The interest rate of the mortgage and other factors (for example, rate discount or posted interest rate) that the lender uses to calculate the prepayment charge
    • The remaining term or maturity date of the borrower's mortgage
      For mortgages where the prepayment charge may be based on the IRD:
    • How the lender determines the comparison rate to use to calculate the IRD
    • Where the borrower can find the comparison rate (for example, on the lender's website)
  • Where the borrower can find the lender's financial calculators that the borrower can use, along with the information above, to estimate the prepayment charge.
  • Any other amounts the borrower must pay to the lender if the borrower prepays their mortgage and how the amounts are calculated.
  • How the borrower can speak with a staff member of their lender who is knowledgeable about mortgage prepayments. For example, borrowers may contact a staff member through a toll-free number as described in section 5.
2. Information Provided When the Borrower Is Paying a Prepayment Charge
If a prepayment charge applies and the borrower confirms to the lender that the borrower is prepaying the full or a specified partial amount owing on their mortgage, the lender will provide the following information in a written statement to the borrower:
  • The applicable prepayment charge.
  • Description of how the lender calculated the prepayment charge (for example, whether the lender used a certain number of months' interest or the IRD).
  • If the lender used the IRD to calculate the prepayment charge, the lender will inform the borrower of :
    • the outstanding amount on the mortgage
    • the annual interest rate on the mortgage
    • the comparison rate that was used for the calculation
    • the term remaining on the mortgage that was used for the calculation
  • The period of time, if any, for which the prepayment charge is valid.
  • Description of the factors that could cause the prepayment charge to change over time.
  • Any other amounts the borrower must pay to the lender when they prepay their mortgage and how the amounts are calculated.
3. Enhancing Borrower Awareness
To assist borrowers in better understanding the consequences of prepaying a mortgage, lenders will make available to consumers information on the following topics:
  • Differences between:
    • Fixed-rate mortgages and variable-rate mortgages
    • Open mortgages and closed mortgages
    • Long-term mortgages and short-term mortgages
  • Ways in which a borrower can pay off a mortgage faster without having to pay a prepayment charge. Examples include making lump-sum prepayments, increasing the regular payment amount, and increasing the frequency of the payment to weekly or bi-weekly.
  • Ways to avoid prepayment charges (for example, by porting a mortgage).
  • How prepayment charges are calculated, with examples of the prepayment charges that would apply in specific circumstances.
  • Actions by a borrower that may result in the borrower having to pay a prepayment charge, such as the following actions:
    • partially prepaying amounts higher than allowed by the borrower's mortgage
    • refinancing their mortgage
    • transferring their mortgage to another lender
Lenders may make this information available on their publicly accessible Canadian website where products or services are offered and upon request by consumers at the lender's places of business in Canada, including when consumers are pre-approved for a mortgage. Ă‚ In addition, each lender will provide on its publicly accessible Canadian website links to information on mortgages provided on the website of the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.
4. Financial Calculators
Each lender will post calculators on its publicly accessible website for borrowers, and provide guidance to borrowers on how to use the calculators to obtain the mortgage prepayment information they want. Borrowers will be able to enter information about their mortgage into the calculator to get an estimate of the current prepayment charge. Borrowers will also be able to change the information they enter, such as the amount of the mortgage that has not yet been repaid or the remaining term, so that they can see how the payment choices they make affect the prepayment charge.
5. Borrower Access to Actual Prepayment Charge
Each lender will make available a toll-free telephone line through which borrowers can access staff members who are knowledgeable about mortgage prepayments. These staff members will be able to orally provide a borrower with the actual prepayment charge that would apply to the borrower's mortgage at that point in time. These staff members will also be able to provide to a borrower, on request, a written statement of their prepayment charge, accurate as at the time the statement is produced. A lender will not proceed to take steps to pay out a mortgage until the borrower has confirmed that the borrower's intention is to pay out the mortgage.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Mortgage Commentary February 23, 2012

Canadian 4th quarter corporate operating profits put in a good performance, up 9.0% over Q3. $71.4 billion is the highest level since the economic downturn in 2008, with 15 of 22 industries reporting higher profits.

Canadian weekly wages were up in December topping $888.00 for an 0.7% increase over November and 2.4% increase Y/Y. There was, however, a reduction in the number of hours worked, 32.8 down from 33.0 in December 2010.

In the U.S., the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index shows a seasonally adjusted drop of 0.7% from November to December. For Q4 the seasonally adjusted decline was 0.1%.

And, as Greece continues to simmer, a poll of 7,000 executives in Germany shows their confidence is up. The Ifo's Business Climate Index climbed to 109.6 for February, up from 108.3 in January, despite predictions Europe will slip into a mild recession this year.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Market Commentary February 22, 2012

The Greek parliament has finally approved sharp austerity measures clearing the way for another round of bail-out money and staving-off default. While there is wide spread, public unrest against the deep and wide-ranging cuts there are still international fears they won’t be enough to save the country.
Some analysts believe the rest of the eurozone is now preparing to deal with the fall-out of an eventual Greek default and the country’s withdrawal from the Euro.

Yields here have remained stable. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp is predicting a steady housing market here, through 2013. CMHC expects housing starts will total 190,000 units in 2012 and 193,800 units next year. Sales will amount to about 457,300 units this year 468,200 units in 2013, with the average home price reaching $368,900 in 2012 and $379,000 the next year.

Reports due out this week include U.S. retail sales for January and Canadian car sales for December; Canadian manufacturing shipments and U.S. housing starts and building permits; and Canadian and American CPI and Leading Indicators on Friday.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Market Commentary February 17, 2012

Yields are up and so is Canada’s inflation rate. The CPI was pushed higher in January by food and energy prices. Last month’s consumer prices climbed 2.5% Y/Y, a slight increase from the 2.3% Y/Y posted in December. Core inflation – excluding food and energy – came in at 1.6% Y/Y in January, again, a slight increase from 1.3% Y/Y in December. Increased car prices are cited for the increase.

Inflation in the U.S. increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in January, for a 12 month, unadjusted rate of 2.9%. Core inflation for 12 months stands at 2.3%.
 
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to a new cyclical low of 348K in the second week of February, nearly 20K below expectations.
 
And Canada’s international securities transactions report indicates an on-going appetite for Canadian assets. In December foreigners acquired $4.7B worth of securities, including $2.1B in bonds. Foreigners purchased a total of $95.6B worth of Canadian securities in 2011, down from $117.4B in 2010.
 
Next week, look forward to Canadian Retail and wholesale trade numbers, U.S. existing home sales , Canadian Q4 corporate profits and American consumer sentiment.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Mortgage Market Commentary February 16, 2012

Calming language from Greece is not having the desired effect and the latest bail-out remains stalled. The European lenders have delayed their decision on handing over the money until Monday.
 
Today’s report on U.S. housing starts shows construction of apartments more than made up for a M/M decline in starts of single-family homes. There were 699,000 seasonally adjusted home starts in January; a 1.5% increase from December and the highest level since October 2008.
 
In Canada the report on December manufacturing sales shows an advance of 0.6% M/M. The 5th increase in 6 months was led by the transportation equipment industry. Durable goods sales rose 2.1% while non-durables fell 0.9%.
 
Tomorrow, both the Canadian and American January CPI figures are out.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Canadian lending guidelines may tighten in the coming months; act now!!

OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) is apparently worried that Canadian banks and mortgage lenders may be making some of the same errors that led to the U.S. real estate and mortgage crisis. According to Bloomberg News, OSFI is specifically worried about stated income lending and home equity lines of credit and the potential for certain borrowers to get into debts they cannot repay.  Ottawa may also consider increasing downpayments and reducing amortizations from 30 to 25 years. 

However, Bloomberg also notes that the Canadian Banking system has been rated the soundest in the world for four straight years with no Canadian lenders needing a government bailout during the recent recession and credit crisis, unlike the U.S. and European banking systems, which remain precarious.

According to Canadian banking industry figures, the percentage of mortgages in arrears in Canada currently sits at .39 of one percent, hardly a red flag for loan quality in Canada. Even still, there may be some additional tightening of Canadian lending guidelines this year as cautious regulators see how badly the credit crisis has damaged the U.S. housing market and their overall economy, and strive to avoid anything like that in Canada. 

Stay tuned.  In the meantime, self-employed, stated income and first-time buyers should consider taking action now. And if you ever have any questions, please get in touch. We are always aware of the current environment and the resulting implications, so we can help you find a mortgage that gives you an edge and meets your current needs and future goals. We have access to over 50 lenders and have options available for all segments of the market!!

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Mortgage Commentary February 14, 2012

The Greek parliament has finally approved sharp austerity measures clearing the way for another round of bail-out money and staving-off default. While there is wide spread, public unrest against the deep and wide-ranging cuts there are still international fears they won’t be enough to save the country.Some analysts believe the rest of the eurozone is now preparing to deal with the fall-out of an eventual Greek default and the country’s withdrawal from the Euro.

Yields here have remained stable. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp is predicting a steady housing market here, through 2013. CMHC expects housing starts will total 190,000 units in 2012 and 193,800 units next year. Sales will amount to about 457,300 units this year 468,200 units in 2013, with the average home price reaching $368,900 in 2012 and $379,000 the next year.

Reports due out this week include U.S. retail sales for January and Canadian car sales for December; Canadian manufacturing shipments and U.S. housing starts and building permits; and Canadian and American CPI and Leading Indicators on Friday.

Mortgage Market Commentary February 14, 2012

Rates remains steady today as economists continue to debate whether Canadian consumers are taking on too much debt. Some argue that the debt to income levels are reaching new highs over 150% and that should be a warning.

Others point out that 150% may have been high when interest rates were over 6% but at today's rates that level is very affordable and should not be cause for such hand wringing.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. And in the meantime for some consumers, as long as they can borrow enough to make their payments they will not have trouble with debt levels and will continue to support the economy with rising consumption.

Canadian lending guidelines may tighten in the coming months; act now!!

OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) is apparently worried that Canadian banks and mortgage lenders may be making some of the same errors that led to the U.S. real estate and mortgage crisis. According to Bloomberg News, OSFI is specifically worried about stated income lending and home equity lines of credit and the potential for certain borrowers to get into debts they cannot repay.  Ottawa may also consider increasing downpayments and reducing amortizations from 30 to 25 years. 

However, Bloomberg also notes that the Canadian Banking system has been rated the soundest in the world for four straight years with no Canadian lenders needing a government bailout during the recent recession and credit crisis, unlike the U.S. and European banking systems, which remain precarious.

According to Canadian banking industry figures, the percentage of mortgages in arrears in Canada currently sits at .39 of one percent, hardly a red flag for loan quality in Canada. Even still, there may be some additional tightening of Canadian lending guidelines this year as cautious regulators see how badly the credit crisis has damaged the U.S. housing market and their overall economy, and strive to avoid anything like that in Canada. 

Stay tuned.  In the meantime, self-employed, stated income and first-time buyers should consider taking action now. And if you ever have any questions, please get in touch. We are always aware of the current environment and the resulting implications, so we can help you find a mortgage that gives you an edge and meets your current needs and future goals. We have access to over 50 lenders and have options available for all segments of the market!!

Monday, February 13, 2012

Collateral versus Standard Charge Mortgages

Another lender has moved to collateral charge mortgages so it's becoming increasingly important to understand the differences between a collateral and standard charge mortgage. Which is better for you? It all depends on your preferences and future needs.

Collateral charge is ideal if you want to be able to access your equity for debt consolidation, renovations, or to invest in property or investments easily and cost effectively. Your mortgage is registered for the same or more than the property value; 100% at ING, 125% with TD Bank, which is why you can access your equity. The downside is at renewal because your negotiating ability with your lender may be affected; it is harder to switch lenders without getting a new mortgage and paying legal fees. In addition, the lender may be able to seize equity to cover other debts with that same lender.

Offered by the majority of lenders, standard charge is ideal if you won't need to refinance your mortgage during your term, and if you want to have the ability to easily and cost effectively move from lender to lender at renewal. If you have a standard charge and need to borrow more, you have the option of a second mortgage or line of credit. Some lenders offer both – standard charge mortgages and HELOCs, which are often a collateral charge.

Whether you're buying your first or next home, getting ready for renewal, taking out some equity for debt consolidation, renovations, or investing, let us help you get the right mortgage type (collateral or standard charge) with the rate and features matched to your needs.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Will Canadian Lending Guidelines be Tightened in the Coming Months?

OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) is apparently worried that Canadian banks and mortgage lenders may be making some of the same errors that led to the U.S. real estate and mortgage crisis. According to Bloomberg News, OSFI is specifically worried about stated income lending and home equity lines of credit and the potential for certain borrowers to get into debts they cannot repay.

However, Bloomberg also notes that the Canadian Banking system has been rated the soundest in the world for four straight years with no Canadian lenders needing a government bailout during the recent recession and credit crisis, unlike the U.S. and European banking systems, which remain precarious.

According to Canadian banking industry figures, the percentage of mortgages in arrears in Canada currently sits at .39 of one percent, hardly a red flag for loan quality in Canada. Even still, there may be some additional tightening of Canadian lending guidelines this year as cautious regulators see how badly the credit crisis has damaged the U.S. housing market and their overall economy, and strive to avoid anything like that in Canada.

Stay tuned. In the meantime, if you ever have any questions, please get in touch. We are always aware of the current environment and the resulting implications, so we can help you find a mortgage that gives you an edge and meets your current needs and future goals.